AI & Cloud Economics for Private Equity
Translating enterprise technology into EBITDA impact and valuation adjustments
PE Deal Advisory
This work is for two people: the PE operating partner who owns a value creation plan, and the CTO at the portfolio company who has to deliver it. Both are measured on the same thing, and neither is served by a technical report nobody in the deal room can read. Cloud economics in private equity demands the ability to translate findings into financial impact — EBITDA adjustments, valuation changes, and deal pricing decisions — which means combining cloud infrastructure depth with an understanding of hold periods and exit multiples.
Unlike general tech diligence firms that provide surface-level cloud analysis, or cost consultants who work post-acquisition, I specialize in cloud economics across the entire PE deal lifecycle. At AWS, working with hundreds of PE-backed companies provided practical benchmarks, realistic expectations, and deep insight into what cloud providers can actually deliver and how to leverage portfolio scale.
Increasingly that work is about AI. Inference is the fastest-growing line item on most portfolio companies' infrastructure bills and the least well understood, which is precisely why it is mispriced in both directions — premiums paid for capability that is a vendor passthrough, and margin models that assume scale will fix a cost that scales with usage. AI diligence and unit economics applies the same method to that problem.
From Pre-LOI Through Exit — and the Hold in Between
AI Diligence & Unit Economics
Establishing whether an AI-positioned target has proprietary capability or a vendor passthrough any competitor could replicate, and whether gross margin survives the growth plan. Capability assessment, data rights and provenance, model dependency and switching cost, and inference cost per unit of revenue benchmarked and modeled at plan volume rather than current volume.
Pre-LOI Screening & Due Diligence
Evaluating cloud economics before letter of intent and during diligence. Technology Risk Assessment framework translates findings to valuation multiples. Waste identification with confidence levels (90% for zombie resources, 70% for right-sizing, 50% for architectural changes) informs EBITDA adjustments and deal pricing.
Economic Translation
Translating technical findings into financial impact—EBITDA adjustments, valuation changes, and deal pricing decisions. Risk-adjusted ROI calculations prioritize opportunities. Experience across hundreds of PE-backed companies provides context for 'normal' versus 'red flag' findings.
Integration & Value Creation
Integration complexity scoring for multi-company cloud consolidation. Portfolio-wide optimization strategies grounded in empirical research. Focus on improvements that enhance EBITDA and exit valuation, not just cost reduction. Clear timelines and confidence intervals for value creation plans.
Exit Preparation
Finding the cloud cost problems a buyer's diligence team would find, early enough to fix them rather than discount for them. Waste quantified with confidence levels, a remediation roadmap sequenced against the exit timeline, and a unit economics trend the seller can actually explain. Optimization discipline you can evidence is what supports a premium multiple. Separation and carve-out economics for divestitures.
Fractional & Interim CTO Leadership
Taking the CTO seat rather than advising from outside it. Fractional engagements provide ongoing senior technology leadership one to two days per week — roadmap, org design, architecture, and spend governance. Interim engagements provide full-time coverage for three to nine months after a departure, during a carve-out, or ahead of a value creation push, through to a permanent hire.
PE-Backed Company Focus
At AWS, working across hundreds of PE-backed companies in four primary sectors provided benchmarks specific to PE-backed companies, not general cloud users — accurate context for evaluating targets and portfolio companies.
SaaS Companies
Software-as-a-Service companies where cloud infrastructure represents primary cost of goods sold. Focus on unit economics (cost per user, cost per transaction) and optimization that improves gross margins without sacrificing growth.
Fintech
Financial technology companies with complex compliance requirements and high transaction volumes. Balancing security, performance, and cost efficiency while maintaining regulatory compliance and audit readiness.
Healthcare Technology
Healthcare tech companies navigating HIPAA compliance, data residency requirements, and integration with legacy systems. Optimizing cloud economics while maintaining security and compliance posture.
E-commerce & Retail
E-commerce platforms and retail technology companies with seasonal traffic patterns and variable workloads. Right-sizing for actual demand patterns and optimizing for peak efficiency without over-provisioning.
Cloud Economics for Private Equity
Author and speaker on translating cloud infrastructure into financial impact for PE deals.
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